October 31, 2011

Bullish continuation; S&P Futures key levels 1290 1275 ▲

We have closing gaps underneath at 1209 and 1243. Hard to see this market going much further until at least 1243 gets closed. A test of the 200 day ema at around 1230 would also not surprise.

 October 28, 2011

Bullish consolidation due; S&P Futures key levels 1290 1274 ▲

Look for early consolidation followed by a late rally.

 October 27, 2011

Bulls out of control; S&P Futures key levels 1254 1231 ▲

1255 broke with a vengeance overnight. That should mark key support for a bit.

 October 25, 2011

Bulls trying to close BIG gap; S&P Futures key levels 1254 1241 ▲

Just missed 1255 this morning, let's see if this reversal is real or a buying opportunity. Still have to call it a bear market so plenty of selling still possible.

 October 24, 2011

Bulls continue strong; S&P Futures key levels 1241 1228 ▲

This may close the gap that marked the bar from 8/3 at 1255. Already over the 200 day EMA, so looking at a critical range of 1231-1255.

 October 22, 2011

100% Profit Target Reached.

When I started this blog in March, my target was 100% annual return. This week I achieved that return in less than 7.75 months. Of course that feels good, but it also offers a chance to reflect.

First I should note that over 95% of the gains came after June 3. Why is that important? That is when I finally gave up on my attempt to develop a completely computerized trading system. Those first three months I had results not much different from the last few years when I was more a hobbyist than a professional trader. When you make that kind of commitment it is really hard to say "I was wrong for the last five year. My grand project was a failure." So I really had to go back 20 years to when I was really good at that, and recapture my inner trader.

The first and biggest obstacle was psychological. One of the main reasons for the 'grand project' was to remove or at least reduce the emotion from trading. Back in the day I had great financial swings coupled with great emotional swings, which is certainly one of the reasons I stopped. The 'grand project' certainly reduced the grand draw downs, but it never really had the grand gains either. Looking back on it I feel I was in an grand emotional grey area for all those years.

While I eventually scrapped the system trading techniques, I did salvage the trading execution platform. One of the biggest problems back in the day was the need to call every time you made a trade or closed a trade. The whole act of analyses and mustering the emotional wherewithal to pick up the phone was actually quite emotionally strenuous for me. Having a good automated execution platform really takes a lot of that out of the equation thus keeping the emotional energy more on the trading where it should be.

 October 21, 2011

Bulls close strong; S&P Futures key levels 1229 1202 ▲

Whippy market on a daily basis. Treading the 200 day moving average on the cash. Doesn't seem like the bear is done yet.

 October 20, 2011

Bears seize the day; S&P Futures key levels 1213 1200 ▼

S&P cash bouncing under the 200 day EMA. Failure should lead to new bear market lows.

 October 19, 2011

Market confused; S&P Futures key levels 1230 1217 ▲

After big reversal rally market moving quickly while churning within a narrow range. Next move should be big.

 October 18, 2011

Bears in control for the day; S&P Futures key levels 1201 1188 ▼

There is a gap at 1155 that makes a natural target.