March 31, 2011

Models stay short; S&P Futures key levels 1330.5 1317 ▼

I may have been a day early on the shorts yesterday. The way it's been going, I probably won't be able to get an entry today. We'll see.

 March 30, 2011

Let's see if this is a high spike; S&P Futures key levels 1308.5 1295.5 ▼

Better shorting opportunities for some lower tests this am.

 March 29, 2011

Trading tend turns down; S&P Futures key levels 1308.5 1295.5 ▼

Last nights closing sell off sets up today's trend reversal.

 March 28, 2011

The bull continues; S&P Futures key levels 1317.25 1304 ▲

I would be surprised if we don't exceed March highs in the next couple weeks. Today I'll be looking for pullbacks late in the day.

 March 27, 2011

Week 4 wrap Money Management (10) Psychology (2) System (6)

This was the week I was waiting for that could have made the month. I've pretty much said it already, but to recap, while the system was getting back in sync with the market, I was trading like it was yesterday.

While taking the losing outliers week one, I failed to capitalize on the winning outliers this week. So I end up with a sub par +3.75 for the week (par is 1 point per day).

That did motivate me to investigate some other system patterns. Since moving into my 'trader' mode, I've been looking to add a 'third' leg to my trading systems. If that works out, all will be well. For one thing, it will allow for more 100% and even 150% leverage trades.

 March 25, 2011

Consolidation day? S&P Futures key levels 1311.75 1298.75 ▲

Coming off two big up days expect to see a consolidation day. If it consolidates lower, say off 1300-1306, look for the late rally. If it consolidates higher, closing is less predictable.

 March 24, 2011

It's the trades you miss that can kill you

I feel like a rube. When you play poker, you often have runs of poor cards. The trick is to use that run to set yourself up for the big score when the cards hit, while making sure you don't go broke on the blinds. If the cards hit and you get outdrawn, that's life. You know you played well and you move on. But when the big score is in front of you and you leave it on the table, that's what will drive you insane. You can't get that money back. There's only so many lessons to be learned, you know the right play and you know you blew it.

I started this journal with a bit of a bad run on the Eminis. But I knew it was a bad run, not bad playing. The next couple of weeks were not the best market for me, but I played them well and got out of the early hole. On Tuesday I wrote about catching the big play,thinking it was coming. Sure enough, on Wednesday the setup came up, a bit imperfectly but there. I even got myself situated in a long position off the early lows. But I had a bit of a loss getting there, so got out to get even. Than, as noted yesterday, I let the rest of the day slip away.

So today just a few minutes before the low I write "This is where you have to have some bullish confidence if we test near yesterdays close". So I have the choice of going a bit outside the system and being aggressive off the oversold ticks, or the pure system play and wait for the momentum reversal. I choose the second and can't get a system fill. The market is not unexpectedly moving too fast. This is where I know if I stayed the course yesterday, I would have the confidence to be more aggressive today.

Than finally there is another system entry off 1300.25. I take that but the secondary retrace causes a system exit strategy to BE. Again, I needed to think outside the system, but was not able to. Essentially I left 20+ points on the table because of what? Fear of losing?

For my part, most of the time is spent getting set up for the occasional big scores. I wonder if the electronic platform is getting me too much into a scalper mentality. Back in the day, you'd find a setup, call the floor, place an order and a contingent order, in my case usually a deep stop OCO MOC. If there was an extremely good response, you might raise your stop or take something off. Now maybe it is too easy to take it off. But what that really means is that it is too easy to take the pressure off yourself once you're even after a poor start. I need to get my mojo back.

 March 24, 2011

Bull charges on; S&P Futures key levels 1298.75 1285 ▲

This is where you have to have some bullish confidence if we test near yesterdays close.

 March 23, 2011

Big Moves - and I strike out

The big moves I mentioned yesterday finally came today, and I missed the meat of it. After the early sell off, I was still not sure if the gap at 1274.25 would be filled. So after a couple of missed early longs (+.25, -2.75), I got back in basis 1280.5. Took the target one at 1283.5 as I have been doing lately, that got me even. Unlike the past few days where target one was the best you could get, I felt good about the continuation and hoped to reenter. Reentry off target one could be fast for about a point basis improvement, or a bit deeper and the key 1281.5 level. Considering 1279 was pretty insignificant and 1274.25 was still out there, I took the deeper reentry, and missed of course. All the mkt could muster was a slight dip to 1282.25, i.e. the fast reentry price. Then I had a second chance for reentry at 1283.25, but since it was raining this AM, I went for a quick jog before a meeting I needed to attend. That was NY lunch time, so I expected a consolidation if anything. Thus missing the reentry. From there, the mkt really didn't give back anything. I was looking for 1286, but the mkt held 1286.5 before it's final move.

It's a good thing there is always a tomorrow.

 March 23, 2011

Still looking for gap fill 1274.25; S&P Futures key levels 1294.5 1281.5 ▲

Took a couple early longs to no avail. Now we are under our key level, but values are there to keep going long. We'll see.